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  • Ever see geese flying overhead? They form a V formation. And one line of the V is always longer than the other.

    Ever wonder why that is?

    "My mama says you don't make no sense. You ain't right in the head." If that was all that didn't make sense.

    My yogurt is 97% fat free. Get me an influenza vaccination that's 49% effective against last year's influenza virus depending on my age, height, weight, sex, and general well-being. I need to get me a general well-being yardstick.

    Accidents, tornadoes, cancer, Alzheimer's, war, terrorism, robbery, murder, rape, retirement funds, computer viruses, infertility, and impotence and you wanna know how secure you are? Or are you at risk? I can tell you twenty ways to shut off a light. I can't tell you the risk you take when you cross the street. That depends.

    Crossing the street can be 49% effective depending your age, height, weight, sex, and general well-being. And the driver. And anyone else on and around the street. It all matters. Risk works that way. When something matters less or in ways we haven't clearly seen we say how much it matters is statistically insignificant. But it's all statistically significant in large enough quantities. Living life isn't dangerous on its own but the effects are cumulative.

    Gang violence, crowded cities, dark streets, unemployed and desperate people all around and you wanna know how secure you are? Gonna get a gun. A gun is good. Shoot me some bad. I can tell you your attack surface but I can't tell you what threats you'll face tomorrow. That kind of magic just don't exist. Guns make your attack surface smaller. Guns will eliminate the threat. Some threats. Not fire. Or the flu. Or hunger. Or a bad first impression. Or milk gone bad. Well, some kinds of milk, yeah. Depends on your general well-being.

    So much to make sense out of. Our brains are great at pattern matching. We can make us think we're making sense of things. Our memories can tell us they support it too. And then we believe it. Pattern matching is strongest during our teen years which is the time we need it most because that's when everyone is out to get us because everything people say to us has a secret meaning. Ironically so.

    We cross the street because we trust things work. We trust we work. We trust in our general well-being and the driver and everyone else around us no matter how statistically insignificant. We don't take a risk crossing the street. We give a trust. And when we're wrong. When our trust is falsely placed. Then we cause the statistics to change significantly in ways that to us and those who love us and less so as we push the scope further from ourselves until the risk we succumbed to when crossing the street has become statistically insignificant on a global scale.

    We exist to trust maybe because we're lazy or because it's just easier to get through the day with it. Maybe we use trust to be significant. Maybe we trust because we can't figure out the next threats and we don't know our vulnerability because we can't really measure our own general well being and so, missing two of the three variables you need to calculate risk, you just can't. And it's used against us.

    We can't really make sense of the immediate world around us the way we can make sense of the greater things. It's because we don't have the variables we need. It's because our immediate world is statistically insignificant to society. And so our immediate world is full of imagined threats, false advice, false facts, and other things that our mind tricks us into believing are believable and possible because nothing makes sense otherwise. So we're mentally relieved when we encounter something that's just true enough. True enough.

    Ever see geese flying overhead? They form a V formation. And one line of the V is always longer than the other.

    Ever wonder why that is?

    Because there's more geese in it.
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